Israel & Iran (session 2)

• Following on from Israel & Iran (session 1)
• Next- Israel & Iran (session 3)
• I’m gonna read the new post by Peter Wildeford (The Fordow Paradox: Where do Iran and Israel go from here?)
• And make predictions as I go

WAVE 1

🤔 Predictions

• Reading the first few paragraphs of the blog post and making predictions
• “Called Operation Rising Lion, this attack involved the Israeli Air Force using over 200 aircraft dropping 330+ munitions on 100 targets. Israeli officials revealed Mossad had established a secret drone base near Tehran months in advance, activating them to destroy missile launchers threatening Israeli cities.”
• ❓Who is Mossad?
• Prediction → head of Israel’s military? The top like… the head of the military? I’m realising I don’t know who is the “leader” of a country’s military!
• 🤔 40% - Mossad is the “secretary of defence” in Israel
• 🤔 20% - Mossad is the top military general in Israel

Who is the leader of a military?

• I guess the leader of the country is the #1 person
• ❓ But there must be a… I guess it’s like, secretary of defence in the US?
• There must be military person, a #1 general, who has been in the military for essentially their whole career. And then there’s a top person in the government, who liases with this person
• ❓ So yeah, I think it’s like, Secretary of Defence, and then Head General (idk what you’d call this)
• 🤔 The top military person in the US government is called the Secretary of Defence - 80%
• 🤔 The top military person in the US government interfaces with the top general - that is, there is a top general, a #1 person in the military - 70%

Seismic shift - why?

• “These attacks represent a seismic shift in a decades-long standoff over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”
• ❓Prediction → because no one has attacked Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. There have been deals, and sanctions as Iran has flouted the CSA/cancelled the AP, but no attacks
• 🤔 70% → no one has directly attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities before

💰 Cashing out my predictions

1. Mossad is the “secretary of defence” in Israel
   • Confidence: 40%
   • ❌ WRONG !!! Mossad isn’t a person !!!
   • “Mossad is essentially Israel’s version of the CIA”
2. Mossad is the top military general in Israel
   • Confidence: 20%
   • ❌
3. The top military person in the US government is called the Secretary of Defence
   • Confidence: 80%
   • ✅
   • The Secretary of Defense (SecDef) is the highest-ranking civilian official in the U.S. government responsible for:
     - Overseeing the entire U.S. military
     - Directing defense policy
     - Acting as the chief liaison between the civilian leadership (President/Congress) and the military establishment
   • The Secretary reports directly to the President, who is the Commander-in-Chief.
   • They also supervise the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Combatant Commanders.
4. The top military person in the US government interfaces with the top general — i.e., there is a #1 person in the military
   • Confidence: 70%
   • ✅
   • Yes — in the U.S. military structure:
     • The top civilian in the government who oversees the military is the Secretary of Defense.
     • The #1 uniformed military officer is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS).
5. No one has directly attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities before
   • Confidence: 70%
   • ❌
   1. Stuxnet cyberattack (2010)
      • A joint U.S.–Israeli cyber operation that physically damaged Iran’s centrifuges at the Natanz facility by sabotaging control systems.
      • Widely regarded as the first major cyberweapon to cause physical destruction.
   2. Natanz explosion (2020, 2021)
      • A series of explosions and power outages damaged centrifuge halls.
      • Iran blamed Israel for covert sabotage operations.
   3. Assassination of nuclear scientists (2010–2020)
      • Multiple Iranian nuclear scientists were killed, often via car bombings or snipers.
      • Widely attributed to Mossad.
   4. 2025 Israeli airstrikes (your context)
      • This marks the first large-scale, overt military strike on nuclear infrastructure.

📝 WAVE 1 REVIEW

• I didn’t do very well lol, but that’s fine, I know barely anything about this!
• This has taken me ~30 minutes (including writing all of this here) - feels SO much more rich than like “I’ll read the entire thing all at once”
• Feels so much more interactive, engaging, adult. I’m still so thrilled about this whole thing! (That is, learning to think)
• All of the above is from the below source text (30 minutes on so few words!!):

In the early hours of June 13, 2025, Israeli F-35I Adir stealth fighters crossed into Iranian airspace, launching precision strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz and Isfahan, while conspicuously avoiding the mountain fortress of Fordow.

Called Operation Rising Lion, this attack involved the Israeli Air Force using over 200 aircraft dropping 330+ munitions on 100 targets. Israeli officials revealed Mossad had established a secret drone base near Tehran months in advance, activating them to destroy missile launchers threatening Israeli cities.

These attacks represent a seismic shift in a decades-long standoff over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Biggest updates

• Damn, Israel’s CIA (Mossad (?)) are very effective. Sniping nuclear scientists, covert attacks, stuxnet.

WAVE 2

• Ok I’m back after a break, lets read a bit more

🤔 Predictions

The drone base

“Mossad had established a secret drone base near Tehran months in advance, activating them to destroy missile launchers threatening Israeli cities.”

• Not a prediction, but I’m assuming this means they set up a drone base inside Tehran, which is mad.
• I guess this a thing countries do? Covert strongholds within enemy territory? But this seems very surprising somehow. Kinda metal
• 🤔 90% - Mossad set up a covert drone base within Iran
• Tbf, it could be an the border of Iran? That seems more likely
• 🤔 30% instead of 90% → setting up a secret base by Iran’s border, in a friendly country, would make a lot more sense/be much less surprising, than actually setting up a base within Iran, without being being detected
  • So to clarify - prediction is that there’s a 30% chance that they set the base up in Iran
• 🤔 60% → they set up the drone base in a neighbouring country

The seismic shift

“These attacks represent a seismic shift in a decades-long standoff over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”

• 🤔 80% → seismic because an attack has never been this blatant. This is the most non-covert, the most obviously attributable to Israel (vs before, stuxnet etc, they’ve had some deniability)

“**What makes Israel’s response extraordinary isn’t just the scale of destruction to nuclear infrastructure, but the simultaneous decapitation of Iran’s military and scientific leadership.”

• Ah ok, so it’s not just the blatantness, it’s that it was in parallel with other attacks!
• Feels hard to know if I got this right or wrong
• I’ll say I got it ❌ wrong - I was overconfident

Iran is in its weakest position in decades

Iran finds itself in the weakest strategic position in decades.

• Why? Let’s think…
  • Decades of sanctions
  • Fairly recently widespread protests, I think?
  • Maybe Israel is particularly bellicose at the moment?
  • Trump is also belligerent, not a President they can look to for appeasement. He scrapped the JCPOA for one thing.
  • Also, Israels leader (Netanyahu?) is very bellicose/pugnacious/aggressive
  • International condemnation of Iran enriching uranium, scrapping their involvement in the IAEA’s AP, and not fully cooperating with the CSA
• I’m probably missing some other factors here

Firstly, the basic military math is brutal — Iran just doesn’t have the military might to match Israel, with Israel having a much larger and more modern military. On top of that, if Iran gets too out of line, US B-2 bombers from nearby Diego Garcia can easily join Israeli forces.

• Damn, yeah, forgot the “Iran probably has a less effective military than Israel” piece
• Diego Garcia? What the hell is that?
• 🤔 60% → Diego Garcia is a US military base somewhere in the middle east

More critically, Iran is fundamentally vulnerable. Israel’s Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow systems can intercept Iranian attacks. But Iran’s air defenses lie in ruins after Israel destroyed most of them in October 2024, allowing Israel to strike most of Iran without interception. And Iran can’t replace their systems and weapons quickly. Russia, Iran’s supplier, is burning through its own air defense inventory in Ukraine and can’t spare replacements.

• Bah, another thing I didn’t think of. “Israel is very hard to attack, Iran is now weakened because of the strikes” (and other recent attacks)

Spotting a dumb model

• I had a dumb model of like “oh, Netanyahu is just kinda evil, he’s very pro-war and hates the Palestinians” etc
• But this blog post makes it clear just how much progress Israel has made re: Iran. They’ve destroyed Iran’s air defences! They’ve apparently hugely disrupted Hamas (which makes sense), which Iran used/allied with, for proxy warfare. And Assad’s regime collapse is another blow to Iran. So actually, it goes from “Netanyahu is just this kind of awful bellicose leader” to “shit yeah they clearly have a mission and it’s going well”
• Stupid to operate on the model of “oh that guy is just a bad guy” vs “he seems to be doing terrible things but it must be coherent with a broader strategy”, but hey, we’re here to learn how to think

”What does Iran want?”

• There’s a whole section about this, but I’m flagging, so I’m gonna leave it there for now.
• This is definitely a blog post I can spend 1-2 hours per day on over multiple days! Super info rich and useful

💰 Cashing out my predictions

1. 🤔 30% — There’s a 30% chance the drone base was in Iran  
   • ✅ TRUE - the drone was in Iran, what the absolute fuck, how do you do that???
2. 🤔 60% — The drone base was set up in a neighbouring country (near Iran’s border)  
   • ❌ FALSE
3. 🤔 80% — The attack is seismic because it’s the most blatant and least deniable Israeli strike against Iran  
   • ❓- I’m gonna give this one an “unresolved”
4. 🤔 60% — Diego Garcia is a US military base somewhere in the Middle East
   • ❌ FALSE - it is within striking distance, but it’s not in the Middle East, it’s actually on a tiny Island in the ocean
     • Diego Garcia is a U.S. military base, and an important one at that.
     • However, it’s not in the Middle East — it’s located in the Indian Ocean, specifically part of the British Indian Ocean Territory, south of the Maldives.
     • Despite not being in the Middle East, it plays a major strategic role in Middle East operations.
     • The U.S. uses it as a long-range bomber base, including for B-2 stealth bombers, which can reach the Middle East quickly from Diego Garcia.

Biggest update from round 2

• Mossad set up a drone base IN Iran, that is crazy shit

WAVE 3

• It’s 22:40 and I’m back for a lil bit more, this is very addictive
• From here:

Israel spent years preparing for the operation against Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, a security official tells The Times of Israel, including building a drone base inside Iran and smuggling precision weapons systems and commandos into the country.

The effort hinged on tight joint planning between the IDF and the Mossad intelligence agency.

According to the official, Mossad agents set up a drone base on Iranian soil near Tehran. The drones were activated overnight, striking surface-to-surface missile launchers aimed at Israel.

In addition, vehicles carrying weapons systems were smuggled into Iran.
These systems took out Iran’s air defenses and gave Israeli planes air supremacy and freedom of action over Iran.

The third covert effort was Mossad commandos deploying precision missiles near anti-aircraft sites in central Iran.

The operations relied on “groundbreaking thinking, bold planning and surgical operation of advanced technologies, special forces and agents operating in the heart of Iran while totally evading the eyes of local intelligence,” says the official.

❓ Initial questions

1. I imagine these are ultra-high tech, very much not like the consumer drones that I’m picturing
2. What kinds of weapons do they carry?
3. Are they human-operated, 1 person, 1 drone?
4. Are they semi-autonomous (1 person, multiple drones)?
5. Are they fully autonomous?
6. What is their payload? Do they drop bombs? Shoot missiles?
7. How much do they cost?
8. Were they destroyed?
9. How do you smuggle weapon systems into Iran?
10. What do you mean by “weapon systems”?
11. So no ground troops? Was this all done like… over the internet? Or were there drone “pilots” in Iran?

🤔 Turned to predictions

1. The drones used cost >$10k per unit
   1. 40% — god knows. I have a sense that military hardware is very expensive, so this could be wildly conservative. But also, drones are cheap, right? I may be too influenced by a strong prior of consumer drones
2. The drones fire missiles
   1. 30% — seems right (vs dropping bombs) - more accurate? But setting a low credence because there’s so much I don’t know
3. Each drone is operated by 1 person
   1. 20% — seems costly/inefficient. There’d be a strong incentive to allow a person to direct multiple at once?
4. One person can operate multiple drones at once
   1. 40% — I don’t feel confident either way…
5. The drones are fully autonomous
   • 1% — that’d be crazy
6. Weapons systems are smuggled into Iran partially via having spies in the Iranian… importing… infrastructure?
   • 30% — I just don’t know shit. There could be other ways for sure. But it does seem like smuggling stuff in via border checkpoints, having spies who work there… there’s a scene in The Wire where this happens, lol
7. Weapons systems (smuggled in) primarily means… missile launchers
   • 30% — seems legit, but I just know so little
8. The drone pilots/operators weren’t in Iran
   • 20% — now I think about it - they set up a drone base, so it seems likely that the operators would have been there

💰 Cashing out predictions

The drones used cost >$10k per unit

• 40% — god knows. I have a sense that military hardware is very expensive, so this could be wildly conservative. But also, drones are cheap, right? I may be too influenced by a strong prior of consumer drones
• ✅ TRUE
  • “In fact, even the lighter kamikaze drones cost tens of thousands, while most Israeli military drones cost millions per unit”
• I was wildly conservative

Dumb model alert

• Realising I was kind of picturing consumer drones, but beefier and a bit fancier
• Rather than something pretty much very different
• ChatGPT:
  • Yes, the drones used by Israel (e.g. in Operation Rising Lion) are vastly different from consumer drones like DJI models
  • Consumer drones (like DJI) are:
    • Lightweight, relatively cheap (hundreds to a few thousand dollars)
    • Short-range (under 10 km), limited payload capacity
    • Used for hobbyist filming, basic reconnaissance, or improvised attacks in conflicts like Ukraine (e.g. dropping hand grenades)
  • Military drones (like Israel’s Heron, Hermes 450, or Harop) are:
    • Heavily engineered for combat and intelligence
    • Cost hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars
    • Equipped with long-range communication, autonomous navigation, stealth features, and weapons systems
    • Capable of precision missile strikes, electronic warfare, or real-time intelligence gathering
• In conflicts like Ukraine, militias often jury-rig consumer drones for tactical use
• In contrast, Israel employs professional-grade UAVs with dedicated command-and-control infrastructure, often operated by trained military personnel from afar

The drones fire missiles

1. 30% — seems right (vs dropping bombs) - more accurate? But setting a low credence because there’s so much I don’t know

• ✅ TRUE
  • It depends on the drone model, but in general:
  • Large drones (e.g. Heron TP, Hermes 900)
  • Primary weapon system: Typically bombs or missiles
    • They can carry free-falling bombs (some up to ~1 tonne)
    • Many are equipped to launch guided missiles, like Spike anti-tank missiles
  • These drones are multi-role: surveillance, strike, and support
  • Loitering munitions (e.g. Harop, Rotem L)
  • Primary weapon system: The drone is the weapon
    • They loiter over an area and dive into the target, self-destructing on impact
    • Best for precision, high-value targets with minimal collateral
  • In summary:
  • There isn’t one single “primary” weapon type across all drones
  • But for larger drones, they mostly drop bombs or fire missiles
  • For smaller or loitering drones, their primary method is kamikaze-style strikes

Each drone is operated by 1 person

1. 20% — seems costly/inefficient. There’d be a strong incentive to allow a person to direct multiple at once?

• ❌ FALSE - they can actually be operated my more than 1 person!
  • This is partially correct — it depends on the type of drone
    • Large tactical drones (like Heron or Hermes 900) are operated by a team, not a single pilot
      • Example: Hermes 900 typically has a mission commander, a pilot, and a sensor operator
      • These drones may also have additional personnel handling intelligence analysis, mission planning, and communications
    • Medium or high-altitude drones (like the MQ-9 Reaper) are usually flown by a pilot and sensor operator, with a mission coordinator involved
      • In some advanced setups, one crew may manage multiple drones
    • Small loitering or mini-drones are often run by a single operator
      • Some can be operated in swarm configurations, where one person controls multiple drones
  • So overall: your prediction is accurate for small drones, but not for the more advanced tactical UAVs used by Israel

One person can operate multiple drones at once

1. 40% — I don’t feel confident either way…

• ❌ can be true, but really doubt it’s true for this operation
• This is true in certain contexts, particularly for smaller or more automated drone systems
  • In advanced drone programs, a single operator—or a small crew—can manage multiple drones simultaneously, especially for smaller UAVs or loitering munitions
  • Larger tactical drones typically require dedicated pilots and separate sensor operators, often working in teams
• So while it’s possible that one person operates multiple drones, this is generally true only for smaller UAVs, not the larger, military-grade models

The drones are fully autonomous

• 1% — that’d be crazy
• ❌ FALSE

Weapons systems are smuggled into Iran partially via having spies in the Iranian… importing… infrastructure?

• 30% — I just don’t know shit. There could be other ways for sure. But it does seem like smuggling stuff in via border checkpoints, having spies who work there… there’s a scene in The Wire where this happens, lol
• I’m gonna say that this can’t really be known
  • This prediction is directionally correct, though not fully accurate in terms of specific logistics  
      - Israel (via Mossad) did smuggle weapons systems into Iran, including explosive drones and precision-guided munitions  
      - This was done covertly, often using disguised transport methods (e.g. vehicles, shipping containers), but the exact involvement of Iranian import/logistics officials is not confirmed  
      - However, the successful infiltration does strongly imply either:
        - Mossad had local operatives embedded within key supply chains, or  
        - They had inside access to Iranian territory and infrastructure (likely via recruited assets or collaborators)  
  • So while the prediction about “importing infrastructure” isn’t explicitly confirmed, it aligns with plausible methods used by Mossad, making your guess a reasonable and partially correct inference

Weapons systems (smuggled in) primarily means… missile launchers

• 30% — seems legit, but I just know so little
• I’m gonna say ✅ TRUE, although I forgot about the drones too!!
  • Here are the sources confirming what “weapons systems” smuggled into Iran included:
    • “Mossad smuggled weapons into Iran ahead of strikes … a base for launching explosive drones was established inside Iran … precision weapons … positioned near surface-to-air missile systems”
    • “Mossad commandos had covertly deployed weapons across Iran, including explosive drones … launched at a surface-to-surface missile base near Tehran” oai_citation:0‡reuters.com
    • A report states “vehicles carrying weapons systems were smuggled into Iran … used to disable air defense sites… commandos deploying precision missiles near anti‑aircraft sites” oai_citation:1‡timesofisrael.com
  • From these, we can confidently say:
    • Missile launchers and precision missiles were indeed part of the smuggled equipment
    • The term “weapons systems” also covered explosive (loitering) drones and drone-launch or guidance gear, not solely missile launchers
  • So your prediction that “weapons systems primarily means missile launchers” is partially correct, but it’s important to include drones and supporting systems in the full picture

The drone pilots/operators weren’t in Iran

• 20% — now I think about it - they set up a drone base, so it seems likely that the operators would have been there
• ❌ FALSE (as expected!)
  • You suggested: “The drone pilots/operators weren’t in Iran”, implying control happened remotely
  • However, the evidence suggests Mossad operatives were on the ground in Iran, operating a covert drone base
    • Unnamed security sources confirm Mossad agents were inside Iran, preparing missile and drone strikes near Tehran during Operation Rising Lion
    • Reports describe commandos directing drone and missile strikes from inside Iran to disable air-defence systems oai_citation:0‡thejc.com
    • A covert drone base near Tehran was launched by agents physically present, suggesting operators were also on-site oai_citation:1‡ynetnews.com
  • So, while some drones may have been controlled remotely, key strike operations were conducted by personnel based inside Iran, not purely from afar