Alex’s current uncertainties

Re: Alex

1. Do I want to live in London?

  • I have a sense that… I don’t care much re: London vs Oxford. Either would be a huge upgrade, and I’m sure either would be great, if planned well, nice place, good neighbourhood, etc ✅

2. Do I want to settle down for a year?

  • I currently feel much more drawn to a year somewhere than e.g. “actually no I’m gonna float around various intentional communities” ✅

3. Do I want to live with Simmo?

  • Hell yeah ✅

4. Am I worried about affording it?

  • If Outcapped stopped existing, then I could scramble to grab other contractor gigs, potentially pitching myself at a low rate
  • I do have a few other possible things lined up, possible interviews
    • 80,000 Hours in-person job, Forecasting Research Institute part-time role, Probably Good ops role
    • p(I get any of these) is low tbf, like 20%
    • p(Outcapped dies suddenly) is low too, <10%
      • Outcapped has positive cash flow, a solid, tested value proposition, a pragmatic and sensible founder, a cash buffer.
      • Rob’s aim is to switch us from contractors to full time employees (which I don’t necessarily want to do, but good to have options). This also signals his desire to grow the team and add stability
  • I’m a little worried that I won’t have a solid enough like “show us your last 3 payslips” thing for a landlord, considering I’ve only just started my contractor gig. But maybe there’s ways around this, like a guarantor, some kind of legal agreement

Re: Simmo

1. How sure is Simmo that he wants to live (and work!) in the UK for a year?

  • Last time we talked about this, he was like “yeah I think I don’t even want to do the classic ‘think about this a bunch, journal a bunch’, it just feels right”
  • But he’s been having a great time at the Garden, and will be visiting other places too
  • Perhaps being a city-bound laptop man is just not his calling?
  • Should he consider the downsides? E.g., it’ll be winter, it’ll be pricey, etc
  • Ofc, living in London will mean that, if Simmo wants to earn money, it needs to be either remote or a London job. No like, “being a community manager at an Intentional Community”, etc. Seems like it could narrow the pot quite a lot, and could preclude opportunities that he might really like?

2. Does Simmo definitely want to lock in to London for a full year?

  • Initial model of London was “don’t like it that much, too big”
  • But, Fractal London, great for novelty, doesn’t feel too big if you live in a good neighbourhood and build good community?

3. What about Oxford, or elsewhere?

  • I thought that Simmo much preferred Oxford to London, but something seems to have shifted for him where now he’s only really considering London, and Oxford doesn’t even cross his mind.
  • Not sure what the shift was?
    • Is it just due to Fractal London? But I thought the Fractal group was too EA-centric for Simmo to be fully excited?
    • Or perhaps it’s the fact that they’ll be a hub for education and practicing facilitation? And a link to Tyler Alterman?

4. Does Simmo know about London costs

  • Estimated London costs
  • £1500-£2000 is my ballpark. Probably could be pretty frugal and stick in the £1400-£1600 ballpark with intentionality and a small bedroom. But, is a small bedroom for a year depressing? Did you e.g. see the small bedroom in Carmen’s place?
    • Perhaps a sizeable living room totally makes up for it?

5. p(Simmo leaves early)?

  • Similar to points 1 and 2
  • Curious for Simmo’s model here
  • I have a story that he could be like “oh shit, actually, I don’t like London, it’s too big, I want to go elsewhere”. It doesn’t feel like a big concern, but, given that I don’t fully understand his reasoning for being so pro-London after being relatively anti-London for a while, I guess I don’t have a sense of “oh yeah, Simmo is keen on London for the 3 reasons, and these 3 reasons are very well validated, so my p(Simmo pivots) is very low”

6. p(Landlord demands payslips from Simmo)?

Next steps

  1. Resolve uncertainties
  2. After that, I imagine next steps are “find people” + “find possible houses”
    • E.g., I could imagine us being like “we definitely want ≥5 people, and ideally we want it to be in these 3 neighbourhoods (so the new house is near at least 1 pre-existing house, Fractal/The Neighbourhood style”)

Appendix

  • “Live Near Friends” movement
  • Could you use the Fractal banner/name, to help find people? “We’re starting a Fractal house”, or a “Fractal-adjacent” house. Make it a hub?